September 11, 2019

Poll: Texans Favor 2020 Democrats over Donald Trump?  

  • Executive, Horse Race

By: Ashleigh Meyer

In Brief:

According to a recent poll, more Mexican and Latino Texas voters support Democratic presidential candidates than Donald Trump.

The Background:

Texas is traditionally a conservative stronghold, and the Lone Star State hasn’t leaned left in 40 years. Bernie Sanders, however, along with five other Democratic frontrunners, are overtaking Trump, according to one recent survey.

Univision, America's largest provider of Spanish-language media, conducted the poll, which focused strongly on Mexican and Latino registered voters within Texas. Just days away from the third Democratic debate in Houston, the results showed a substantial lead for Sanders, who managed to pull 48% of voter support, compared to Trump’s 42%. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren also command a distinct lead over the incumbent, and lesser-known candidates Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Julian Castro polled slightly higher than Trump, too.

The poll also determined that 40% of registered voters (at least the ones who participated in the survey) would vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever that may be. Just 33% pledged support for Trump. None of this should come as a surprise, however, as the Mexican-American community has historically favored Democratic candidates and policies.

While the population of eligible voters within the Latino community is growing, and so is their voter participation, there is still significant disparity between population size and the number of individuals from the Hispanic community who actually make it to the polls. In the 2018 midterms, Hispanics represented 30% of eligible voters in Texas. Headlines everywhere declared that Texas wasn’t a sure win for Republicans and was becoming a battleground state. The state still went red, reelecting Ted Cruz by a considerable margin. In the 2016 presidential race, Trump won by 9% over Hillary Clinton.

Why It Matters:

Every election season, Democrats and media pundits fantasize about the so-called “blue wave” soon to be sweeping over Texas. Every election season, they manage to simulate scenarios in which their dreams may become a reality, and every season, they are disappointed. With immigration remaining on the front lines of campaign discussion, Hispanic voter turnout will likely continue to rise. Time will tell.

Ashleigh Meyer is a professional writer and Conservative political analyst from rural Virginia.

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